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Budget Blowout

“Wow, that’s more than I planned to spend…” If you bid often enough, you’ll hear something like this eventually. Before we go into rescue mode, let’s take the opportunity to really consider why this happens. I believe there are three main reasons that projects come in over budget.

#1. Design professionals bear no responsibility for the relationship between market pricing and their construction documents.

#2. Estimates are “free”.

#3. Clients working with borrowed money learn how much they’re approved to spend after the bid proves market value to their financier. Sometimes, the financier approves less funding than the client planned for.

Spotlight on Architects

In some ways, it’s understandable why Design professionals would seek strong separation from design and price. The training, skills, and experience necessary to gain entry to this profession are impressive. Unfortunately their training in management, mediation, contract law, scheduling, and estimating is scant.   Nevertheless Architects often provide owners rep services which gives them contractual authority over the General Contractor (GC) for the project.

Negotiating the costs of changes to the plan could hardly be impartial if Architects faced strict liability for the additional costs their client incurred. Most change orders are driven by design shortcomings because it’s REALLY difficult to custom design something perfectly. The best Architects recognize the nature of the business and mediate accordingly. Their mistakes are cheaply fixed.

All of which makes two arguments

The first is that lacking formal training in management, estimation, and contract law, Architects should hardly be the clients first choice for owners rep. Architects have a difficult enough job in designing the project on its own.   Of course Architecture firms could hire Construction Managers to fill this shortfall, but that requires admitting fault in the status quo.

The second, is that Architects with experience have ample opportunity to see the market value of their designs. Requests for Proposals (RFP) often demand pricing breakdowns to show how different building components drive the total project cost. Architects are flush with incredible amounts of cost data that they never paid a dime for.   This makes it difficult to believe that Architects have genuine basis to be surprised when their project comes in over budget.

surgical

“Ok guys, on the count of three, everybody look surprised. One…Two…”

Conceptual bidding: it’s always your risk

In an effort to prove due-diligence to their clients, many Architecture firms have several rounds of competitive conceptual pricing. Conceptual pricing is a courtesy the market extends to design professionals. Demanding competitive pricing without any promise of contractor selection isn’t reasonable. That’s like holding a charity auction without a prize.

Architects who are conceptually pricing work that’s similar, if not identical to their “bread and butter” type of project aren’t gaining new information. As professionals, Architects need to respect how costly their practices are to the market.

For example: A modest commercial interior build-out may require as few as 20 and as many as 50 individual subcontractors . If the GC invites an average of four bidders per trade, that’s 80 to 100 companies working on the estimate for that project. Some trades will require the assistance of their suppliers or vendors to price portions of their work.  That might add another 20-30 firms that are involved across the board. Averaging two hours for each estimators time that comes to 200-260 hours of labor for a single GC’s bid list. If we charitably average what each company’s paying these estimators at $25.00/ hour that means the conceptual estimate cost the local market $5,000.00 to $6,500.00.  Most competitive bids have three or more bidders bringing the single estimate cost to $15,000 to $19,500.  Design development  typically have three rounds of pricing before the final bid bringing the total market cost to $45,000-$58,000

In many cases the market cost is greater than the final build team can hope to profit from the eventual job. Some Architects won’t even give the conceptual bidders an invitation to bid the final project until they’ve worked their way up to the short-list of qualified bidders.  The problem here, is that getting onto a short list means someone’s got to come off.  Paying your dues has less to do with your performance than anyone wants to admit.

Some Architecture firms request bids for literally hundreds of projects a year with only a handful that ever get built. These Architecture firms should note how the adversarial nature of construction management grows its roots early in the process.

endangered

Bids are not free

GC’s who are “feeding the bears” by participating in competitive conceptual bids assume part of the responsibility for their malignant growth in the industry. If a GC wants to make inroads with an Architecture firm by donating their time to conceptual pricing, they need to limit the donation to their own resources. GC’s have extensive backlogs of information on past project costs. There’s no reason for GC’s to burden their subcontractors with needless conceptual efforts. When the plans are so vague, square foot conceptual pricing will suffice. An occasional question to a trusted subcontractor pertaining to the nuance of the scope is certainly acceptable.

The reason GC’s throw this out to competitive bidding is because they aren’t using estimators. An estimator worthy of the title would be able to handle this in-house quickly and inexpensively. The purpose is to provide rough order of magnitude (ROM) budget pricing based on a blend of historical costs, unit pricing of specialty items, and risk factor assessment.

Headed downhill and picking up speed…

Project Managers (PM’s) are often pressed into estimating their own jobs. These conceptual estimates are thrown on their desks as though they’re viable opportunities. Lacking the experience of an estimator, they seek to control their risk by tying all project responsibility to subcontractor proposals. They get these subcontractor proposals the only way they know how: competitive bidding. Demanding subcontractor competition on dead ends is why PM’s end up pounding the phones on bid day claiming “nobody’s looking at this job“.

bearfishing

Bob could never figure why he’s got the whole lake to himself…

“But you get to help me for free!”

These PM’s bids are little more than the sum of subcontractor proposals plus fee. This creates an opening for trouble because PM’s are counting on the subs to accurately cover the GC’s risk. The allure of helping the PM’s quickly fades for subs who see the PM becoming a liability. Eventually sub bids become historical square foot pricing, that’s multiplied by a frustration factor. PM’s might be surprised to learn that this frustration factor plays a role in “real” bids as well. Subs may be unwilling to give these PM’s their best efforts because the PM’s refuse to control their own risk.  Put another way, PM’s aren’t competitive bidders when they’re not serious about estimating.  It’s awfully hard to be serious about estimating when you’re busy managing current jobs.

Pay attention to intention

Conceptual plan sets are a HUGE risk because people will only remember the lowest price you gave them. As illustrated above, the Architect is sitting on a HUGE amount of cost feedback that should steer their course. Nevertheless if your number gives them an excuse, they might swerve the whole job into the ditch chasing it. The design team often treats the conceptual estimate as a “check number” against their clients budget. Low conceptual prices are interpreted to mean they’ve got more money to spend. Design teams collecting a percentage of final contract value have an incentive to maximize the budget.

Above and beyond this, Architects typically allow their consultants to lag substantially in the design. This means that they’ll pipe up about some mandatory (and expensive) engineering concern after the conceptual pricing. PM’s who are used to building to the letter of contract documents (CD’s) quickly learn that conceptual estimating doesn’t play by those rules.

GC’s with overly optimistic conceptual pricing often face their client’s anger later on. Since the Architect proved their due diligence via conceptual pricing, the client assumes the GC’s suddenly got greedy. Neither the Client nor the Architect wants to hear your excuses about how the plan changed, or how you just won their competitive bid!

I really hope nobody told you this would be easy!

The shifting sands of finance

Prospective clients must often pursue financial backing during design development. Financial institutions must carefully guard their shareholders assets by scrutinizing every loan application. Since the final cost of a construction project is not defined until the final bid, it’s understandable that financiers hold off on final decisions until that time. Depending on a variety of factors, the financiers may opt to loan less than the client anticipated. Since the client’s anticipated budget was the basis of the Architects’ design, a natural impasse is formed leaving the client with diminished prospects for getting their project built. Client credit worthiness aside, there are some factors to consider.

In order to get started, the client must present a proposal to their financiers showing how they’re assured recompense from the venture. Part of this is showing how the construction budget is reasonable and in line with market value. In other words, a feasibility study. This stuff extends way beyond the desk of an estimator but at some level, the client needed to prove that spending the construction budget to build the job would be a good idea.

chairmen

“The Chairmen think your bridge project is too expensive…”

Says who?

Historical data is the perennial treasure chest of answers to all conceptual estimating questions. What establishes historical data? Whatever the last people paid for something similar near you. Cities, Counties, States, Realtors, Developers, and Lawyers all track this information for their dealings on the market. There’s even a subset of construction estimating called “forensic estimating” which investigates anything from a simple construction contract to an entire land development operation.

In practical terms this means that developing in a new area without historical pricing means you’ll have greater risk. It also means that if your neighbor got a great deal, you’re going to have to work with less.

All these various resources are brought to compare with the final budget amount. Financiers may seek to lower their risk by demanding greater surety, higher interest, or lowering the loan amount. Commercial businesses fail all the time. Lenders are very aware of this fact and loan accordingly.

Potential solutions

Clearly there’s room for improvement in the traditional design-bid-build process. Budget blowouts are depressingly common, especially during slow markets. Everyone needs these projects to happen with less risk, cost, and time. Thankfully, technology might have provided an answer.

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a computerized method of integrating the physical properties of building materials into design and management. This is different from Computer Aided Design (CAD) because CAD is mostly a substitute for drafting.  BIM is an advancement of CAD that allows Architects to model the building.  Some even output to 3-D Printers to create physical scale models.

BIM theoretically allows a design team to output decision-making information. I attended the thesis presentation of a research group who were using BIM to optimize residential home design. The team was able to remove 30% of the structural framing, 25% of the plumbing, among many other savings while retaining or even exceeding the merits of a traditional design. The BIM design cycle didn’t require extensive contractor bidding because the building materials were synchronized to industry recognized standards for pricing. By the time these designs are ready for contractor bidding, the variance in market conditions is very small. Extending beyond the bid, BIM systems offer an impressive degree of building management information. One such system could output scheduled maintenance for the entire building for the next 50 years.

While BIM certainly offers a much-needed connection between design and cost, it’s primarily in use at the highest echelons of the market. Therefore it’s best viewed as a helpful product that’s still on the distant horizon for the rest of us. I’ve been hearing about the imminent usefulness of 3D designs for about 20 years now and aside from “fly through” animations for client presentations, I’ve never seen it on a project that got built. Progress with this stuff is much slower than advertised.  I strongly suspect it’s because its disruptive to the status quo.  If Architects were autonomously developing a design that met the budget on their first try, the entire paradigm would change.

Pick your team early

Teaming up with a GC early on in the process is a low-tech option that ties design development to costs early on. In excellent examples, the Architect and the GC work together effectively. Others are just boondoggles. GC’s awarded these negotiated agreements run the gamut from top of their class, to bona-fide hacks. Tax-exempt entities tend to award dodgy GC’s.

competition

But he looks so confident!

Perhaps membership in related religious, charitable, and social groups opens the door for them. It’s always a shame whenever it happens. Clients need to award based on proven past performance. For example, don’t hire anyone who’s paid damages for delays!  The worst companies are always late and full of excuses. Lots of GC’s have never been late on a project.

You get more of what you encourage

Like most things in life, the greater the incentive, the harder people will pursue it. Clients with limited funds can not afford to work with unprofessional firms. It’s difficult to impress the need to do less with less in order to make the work profitable for good firms. Shoe-string budgets should buy good shoe-strings not building additions. Clients focused exclusively on stretching their own budget rarely consider the economics of an equitable exchange.

rhinobaby

Ritchie doesn’t like to share

The work must be profitable for the design team and the build team. Work started with the appearance of unprofitable contract award, often leads to pilfering. By starting with fair-dealing, the client can get better value.

Compartmentalize the conceptual

I believe it’s obvious that Architects should be responsible for designing to the budget. That involves comparing this client to other similar clients and adjusting their design-to budget to what has been historically approved by financiers.

Building systems can be categorized and compartmentalized for conceptual purposes. For example, the budget may include $24,000 for all acoustical ceiling systems. The design may have 16,000 square feet of such systems, are you holding to a reasonable square foot price? Any necessary market-pricing is therefore reduced to specific areas of concern. It’s time for Architects to be aware of the dollar impact of their decisions.

Tracking these decisions through the design could supplant the competitive conceptual bidding. In order to make all of this “stick” the Architecture firms will need to hire qualified construction estimators. The obvious problem of this solution, is that Architects are currently getting this service for free. Which leads to…

Stop feeding the bears

Free bids shouldn’t apply to consulting. Bids are free because the client/Architect didn’t charge anyone for admittance onto their bid list. They represent portions of contractual development. Request for proposal, bid, contract award to best bidder, and so on. Conceptual bidding is not at all the same. Professional courtesy is being abused.

Conceptual pricing utterly dominates the market in slow times. Architects routinely blow their clients budget after months of wasteful conceptual bidding. Some project re-emerge every fiscal quarter only to blow their budget again!

Architects who earn a reputation for wasting bidders time should expect the market to lose interest in them. GC’s who lose all the time aren’t attracting the market leading subs who could change their odds of victory. Architects need to lose business for being unprofessional.

beargrills

Eventually people stopped coming to Troy’s parties

Blowing their client’s budget isn’t “part of the process”. It’s the direct result of ignoring the business interests of all concerned in the deal.

At a bare minimum, Architects looking for conceptual pricing should expect to pay for the help. Open invite competitive conceptual bidding would immediately stop if every bidder involved got just $50.00 for their efforts. GC’s offering to help could provide an upper limit to their estimates cost, thereby limiting the number of subs involved. Small projects would stop being conceptually bid altogether because Architects might suddenly recall all those old bids… And of course, the Architecture firms would regard hiring their own estimator in a more positive light. Progress would be made.

Construction Manager

Client’s may elect to hire a Construction Manager (CM) to be their owners representative. On the surface this has many advantages because a CM is eminently capable of assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the contractors and the design team. The results can be impressive. I’ve been on both sides of the fence with CM’s and I can say that a truly professional CM can smooth out the kinks better than other contractual relationships. There is however, one snag. In most cases hiring a CM is viewed as “extra cost” because the Architect typically handles these duties. CM’s may try to prove their worth by generating a stack of vetoed change orders, or forcing the design team to accept Value Engineering solutions. These dollar impacts go towards defining the value of the CM’s oversight.

buffalo

The buffalo grass solution saved on mowing but created other…problems

There’s a difference between good leadership and trophy hunting. Driving the project into an adversarial morass over changes to the scope is a common result of an overzealous CM. Qualified CM’s cost money. Expecting CM’s to fund their services out of project savings isn’t effective. Prioritizing cost and design gouging over project delivery is the problem CM’s are there to solve.

A few words for the clients

The first time client faces a great many challenges in getting their project built. Everyone who knows what to do is a competitor, and everyone else is selling something. Picking the right Architect can substantially influence your odds of success. Clients can’t ask GCs because they are afraid of angering Architects they might have to work with again. First time clients may have different priorities. Some of the worst Architects I’ve ever worked with have testimonials on their websites talking about how wonderful they were about managing conceptual changes. Nobody wrote about how they were on hitting the budget, or the project deadline. My bet is the answer to those questions would have clients running away.

babyrhino

Run Ritchie! Run!

Hiring a CM, especially one who’s retired from General Contracting is a great way to capitalize on experience without the diplomatic hesitation. These folks may have decades of experience in a market leading them to know the top players in all disciplines. Clients might consider hiring them as a consultant to get the “lay of the land” in terms of recommended design teams and contractual relationships.

Asking tradesman and material vendors is a spotty resource at best. Lots of companies love weak design teams because of the rich change order potential. Some vendors are better represented and protected by design teams specifying their expensive products. Still other companies will unfairly judge an Architect based on the engineering consultant they hired. Plus it’s important to understand that few subcontractors will ever actually work directly with an Architect. Everything is through the GC who may filter out, or add in whatever made their experience memorable.

a magical time

Those aren’t soap bubbles…

Clients should insist that their contract terms with the Architect include proviso’s for blown budgets. At a minimum, the timely revisions necessary to get the budget in line for contract award should be included. Hopeless and hapless requests for Value Engineering post bid are a terrible solution to a problem started at the beginning. Design teams need to see an incentive for saving money and building to a reduced budget. Heading into the final bid, the design team could present their estimated budget and the savings they built-in to it in anticipation of funding shortfalls, or design oversights. Projects are built with contingency, they should be designed with contingency as well. Clients should understand that rushing to bid an incomplete design is false economy. Risk is expensive.

Clients might consider disclosing financial information to the bidding team with greater accuracy. Lots of project RFP’s go out without an estimated budget provided. Clients are stingy with financial feedback, much to their detriment. Public bid-readings complete with the names of all apparent low subs at bid time will go a long way towards curbing bid-shopping. Publishing the CSI breakdown and list of subs for all responsive bids within 24 hours proves a level of honesty that deters cheaters and improves the market. Committing to working with the low bidder even if the budget is blown is the fair and ethical action. If the budget gap is insurmountable, the bid should be considered a loss for all. A serious reassessment of the design team, the financier, and the local market is in order. Sort out what’s wrong and return with real solutions. At a minimum, a client sharing this information is sowing the seeds of honest dealing. Rewarding the best and informing the rest leads to a more prosperous and robust market for all.

 

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© Anton Takken 2015 all rights reserved


Closing the Deal

Your client has heard your pitch or read your proposal. You’re confident in your estimate, and the players involved. The client hasn’t green-lit your proposal, and the scheduled start date is looming.

Every client or design team question is a red-hot priority to get answered. Whatever else you’ve got to do will have to wait. As days creep by there’s still no contract award. What do you do?

focusing

It’s just so close!

Estimators suffer a tendency to think like…estimators. Specifically they tend to focus on measuring and pricing items rather than considering what’s been presented to the client. Adding to this problem, Estimators might be accustomed to competing against their peers in the market. This implies that a general level of knowledge and skill is present among competing estimators. No such criteria exists among clients . Clients may not understand industry practices, terminology, and jargon.

Well I’m the low bidder, surely that’s enough for them!

Consider the case of a one-time builder like a standalone retail building. The client may have little to no personal experience with the construction industry. However they have doubtlessly read about State or Federal projects that became boondoggles through mismanagement and greed. It’s a grave concern to an individual that cost over-runs could put them under before they can even start. The tighter their budget, the less likely they are to have contingency funds to pay for change orders. This is a serious commitment, similar to hiring a surgeon. Clients need the project to be successful on their terms. That means defining and addressing whatever they’re most concerned about.

The key to closing is knowing which door is open.

opportunity

Don’t be like this guy

Time Critical

Some clients will be especially sensitive to deadline delays. Retail establishments that aren’t open in time for major shopping seasons can face financial ruin as a result. Office remodels might entail renting a temporary space, effectively doubling or tripling their rent during construction. Clients like this would be looking for a firm schedule commitment in the bids they receive.

Competence with Complexity

Other Clients are primarily concerned with the functional outcome of complex systems. Factories, or manufacturing facilities might require extensive coordination between; Architects, Engineers, specialty contractors, equipment purveyors, and the build team. Clients in this case might need a General Contractor who can take the many demands of all these disciplines and direct the resources towards a successful outcome. “By the book” bidding practices won’t carry far with these clients. Problem solving, conflict resolution, and strong leadership need to be promoted to attract these clients attention.

Perfect Craftsmanship

Certain clients want perfection in terms of craftsmanship, and materials. These clients are willing to hire strong design teams with well-defined construction documents.   Top-tier subcontractors deliver the sort of performance these clients are looking for. These clients want to know you’ve vetted every tradesman you’ll have working on their project. The best indicator of future success is past performance.

perfect

“Tight fitting woodwork is our specialty.”

Proving your abilities with a portfolio of similar work is a good approach. Appearing “cheap” may work against a bidder.

Bid Packet Perfection

Municipal, public, and institutional clients often have regulations and policies they must adhere to. These regulations may give preference to specific groups like Women Owned Business, or Minority Owned Businesses. Depending on the policies, these clients might have a percentage of participation for these groups in terms of contract value. Proving the percentages with the correct paperwork, on complex jobs often leads to minor discrepancies. Winning and losing these bids can be as simple as getting the paper work correct. I’ve encountered urban city projects that were re-bid because there wasn’t a single GC who had submitted an error-free proposal the first time! These clients can’t accept an incomplete/imperfect proposal so it’s very important to prioritize accordingly.

Corral the Committee

Sometimes the client is a committee tasked with reviewing the proposals and awarding the contract. In the best of cases, this is a smooth democratic process. More often, it’s an exercise in scope creep. Questions regarding the project quickly move to the hypothetical. Before long, you’re attempting to give accurate schedule, budget, and permitting feedback on something imagined within the conversation!   Committees lacking firm leadership are long on good intentions and short on decision-making. It’s critical to understand that these clients won’t make decisions any faster once the project is underway.

traffic

Moving to item two on our agenda for today…”

Projects rarely get schedule extensions so unanswered questions can pose significant risk. Kindly rise to the situation and fill that leadership gap. Diplomatic but firm direction keeps the committee on task and gets everyone where they need to be. Done well, they’ll be satisfied that your firm took their direction properly.

All inclusive

Clients with Design-Build projects have an entirely different perspective than others. Lacking an Architect’s representation, these clients are looking for a turn-key proposal which effectively delivers them their vision of the project within the schedule and budget submitted. These clients generally perceive change orders to be impossible since “you designed it”. Whatever schematic design documents were provided will be expected in your proposal regardless of how vague, misleading, or apparently irrelevant. A history of previous successes might be significant with these clients as well.

Brass tacks

Finally, there’s the budget-conscious client. These clients occur at every tier and there’s just nothing for it but to be low bidder. Clients with high expectations and low funds often arrive at bid day to find they’ve blown their budget. Estimators are often too discreet to ask the client how far the budget is off. Lacking this information, they’re unable to determine how much needs to be cut. This leads to playing guessing games with breakouts, alternates, and value engineering. Estimating is NOT GUESSING. Throwing out whatever might save money is a foolhardy practice that consumes resources, generates risk, and lowers profitability. It’s a terrible practice that desperately needs to stop. Every number you provide can be used against you later. Many GC’s have unit-priced their way into an unprofitable project by “helping” an underfunded client.  Charitable donations should at least be tax-deductible!

lil'help

That escalated quickly!

It may help to be reminded that the Architect typically knows the clients budget at the earliest design stages. They also know the clients priorities for the project. Some features are naturally more critical to the client than others. When it comes to big budget gaps, the Architect should be involved. Working together with the Architect reduces the odds that they’ll reject your suggestions later.

“Your number was competitive, I’m still deciding which way to go.”

It’s absolutely imperative that estimators recognize the connection between time for consideration and pressure to act. The deadlines for bidding are a source of pressure for all bidders. Get it done by this day, no excuses, no exceptions. Clients who marinate on the proposals for longer than you had to bid aren’t playing fair. It can be extremely difficult to get the clients attention after the bid. Stay after it because more time translates to less pressure. Dithering clients might be approached by a competitor who captures an opportunity to revise their proposal to meet some previously undisclosed demand. Now that competitor is “working with” the client. Potentially generating inertia away from the actual outcome of the bid via trust-building rapport.

An alternative to “hard sell” tactics

If a client say’s that you were competitive but they can’t make up their mind, it’s time to get curious about that. Inquiring about your performance in the market is a modest recompense for the effort to deliver them a bid. Rather than “hard-selling” the client, I recommend professional inquiry to figure out what “doors” of lingering concern are open.

What’s driving their decision? Narrow it down with helpful options like duration, budget, experience, competence, etc.

Once you have an area of focus, you can reference your proposed answer to their concern. Very valuable feedback is often provided at these junctures. The purpose isn’t to argue or cajole the client, it’s to determine how your bid compares to your competitors*.

*Note: Bid scope comparison is not to be confused with bid AMOUNT comparison. Sharing, conspiring, or otherwise conveying the monetary amounts that are not read aloud at a public bid reading constitutes bid shopping which is definitely unethical and potentially illegal.

Sometimes a difference in proposals is easily explained. Offering polite and restrained suggestions about what your competitor did differently might help shed new light on your proposal. If your competitor’s approach on some issue was superior to yours, you have an opening to admit it. Often we’re forced to decide between options relating to scope or schedule. If the client prefers your competitors choice, you might be given an opportunity to revise your proposal because you were reasonable.

Walking the client through their concerns might open an opportunity to address something they hadn’t mentioned previously.

dragon

“Sure we can add… dragons… to the pole lights…”

Factor this feedback into the new opportunity so you can capitalize on it. Present a revised proposal that’s worded with sensitivity to the client’s concerns. This communicates a commitment to resolving the clients concerns. With all their concerns met, you can then follow-up and simply ask for the job.

Leadership

I hear a lot of folks shy away from sales because they don’t want to pressure people into a decision. If sales was strictly about approaching people at random, they’d have a point. In the context of a bid, the client extended a Request For Proposal or an Invitation to bid through their Architect. Their proposition, greatly simplified is; be the best bidder and you’ll be awarded the job. It’s therefore expected that the client will award the job to the best bidder. Clients may be overwhelmed by the amount of information to compare. They’re rarely trained estimators who are used to scoping proposals in terms of potential risk and profit.

The situation demands leadership. Staying on the sidelines because you’re too polite to provide follow-up means you’ll be awarded fewer jobs than you won. Trust is a powerful thing. A knowledgeable and seasoned professional can assuage anxiety and establish trust with a client. Clients sometimes award their project to a higher cost bidder, this is how and why that happens.

Holding ground

You won’t always be the low bidder. In some ways that’s as much an asset as a liability. I’ve heard it put succinctly like this : It doesn’t matter whether you win everything you bid or lose everything you bid, you’ll be out of business eventually.

Knowing that some folks take longer to learn than others, it stands to reason that eventually you’ll be bidding against someone who hasn’t figured out why they’re on such a winning streak. Your bid should ALWAYS be representative of your best effort to profitably win the job. Let nature take its course with reckless bidders.   Let the buyer beware.

outside line

Taking the outside line brings its own risks…

 

Clients that indulge in “comparison shopping” by crowding the line or stepping over into bid-shopping are doing so to gain a better deal for them. Many business owners view this as an opportunity to “trim some profit” to land a contract. In doing so, they invariably look toward gouging on change orders to recoup their “investment”.

It really doesn’t take much life experience to see how this ends up. The client is reluctant to hire that GC again because they were so aggressive with change orders. The GC’s potentially recovering from an unprofitable job and a scarred reputation with the client. Often they’re looking to “make it up on the next one“.

The legitimate low bidder might well have built the job for less simply because their bid included sufficient funding to keep their operation running smoothly without needing to gouge on change orders.

It’s a chain reaction of dishonest actors trying to out-fox one another to the detriment of all. Life becomes parody when such a client calls you to say they need your help because they don’t want to hire their low bidder. If they didn’t want to contract with that GC, they could have excluded them from the bid. The client started the problem by cheating the last time, now they’re doing it again. Dishonesty calls everything into question. The client’s premise is based on dishonesty, so it’s reasonable to suspect the story is false.

In fact the only thing you know for sure, is that the client is willing to be dishonest wherever it benefits them. Diseases like Yellow Fever, Typhoid, and… Greed, need to be quarantined before they spread to others.

got moves

The start is slick and graceful but it always ends with a busted beak.

Setting a precedent

The answer is to hold the line on your price. If you did everything properly, your proposal is as close to market-leader as you could make it. Bids are a lot cheaper when you’ve missed something important, like paying your overhead. That doesn’t make them market value. If the client was bluffing and your proposal was already the lowest legitimate bidder, they may award to you anyway.  You can’t cheat an honest person. Setting this precedent with the client at the outset reduces trouble down the road.

Reinforce the precedent

Entering into a contract with a dishonest client doesn’t improve their character. It merely binds you to a client who will cheat you every chance they get. The most common tactic is to demand changes to the scope right now because they’re in a hurry, verbally (off the record) promising to sign your change order. Once the extra work is done, they’re suddenly interested in disputing the change order price. Again the solution is to hold the line*. Extra work requires contract modification, full-stop. Be friendly, be motivated, be firm. You’ll be amazed at how fast they can get a change order processed when they really need to.

*Note: there are RARE times where extra work must happen without a change order first. For example if the building is flooding, you must shut off the water main THEN ask to be paid for your trouble.

Dishonesty is a form of laziness, cheaters quickly tire of losing arguments with honest professionals.

Another thing to consider; additional work takes time. In the eyes of a contract, if you were late because you were busy with not in contract work, it’s your fault even if the client benefits from your extra work. Simply put, if freebie extras make you late, they’ll punish you all the same. Little things add up quickly, especially when the client’s getting them for free.

rich

“You were late so… I’m gonna keep the extras!”

Negotiations are rarely simple

When negotiating, remember that completed work doesn’t get cheaper after the fact. Discounting, bargaining, and horse-trading are all better done BEFORE resources have been consumed.

Value reflects the balance of perceived asset and liability to a given party. If the client already has the asset, all you have is the liability. This means the client has leverage in negotiating the value because you aren’t even breaking even (earning back your liability) if they refused to pay altogether.

The whole reason that market value persists is because it’s beneficial to both parties. Looking at negotiations requires a willingness to be macro and micro in your perspective. Doing some portion of the scope at a loss is a micro perspective, doing the whole job at a profit is a macro perspective. Micro relates to Macro, because herd of little parts done for free can push the profit out of the whole job . Understanding what the client values provides a basis to work from. As silly as it sounds, a lot of clients get hung up on the value of something small. They may want a “victory” to report back to their superiors. Keep a rolling total in your mind of where things are headed. It might make sense to do something at cost to move on from a minor issue.

Some clients mistakenly believe that breakout pricing is how they’ll succeed in lowering prices. This transparent effort to demand the means to bludgeon contractors isn’t successful because it’s unfair. They can’t expect competitive bidders to reveal how they arrived at their price. Contractors proved they were market value by competitively bidding. Now they’ll prove their savvy by providing breakouts intended to diminish the appearance of profit. It’s simply a story that amounts to their total, that gives the client what they asked for without giving them anything worth taking away.

apathy

“Competition was fierce but you’ll see everything’s still in order…”

Clients should be encouraged hold up their end of the deal and work with, rather than against, the winning bidder. In a typical hard-bid, the final budget is the market-price of the project. There’s more than just labor and material going into that market price. Project risk from schedule, site logistics, seasonal workloads, worker shortages, design shortfalls, working conditions, labor disputes, insurance and bonding requirements, etc. The client may not realize that their project would be much cheaper at a different time of year, or that their project requires specialty products that are in short supply.

Very often GC’s will try to accommodate budget over-runs with Value Engineering which sadly translates to “substitute cheaper materials and cut scope”. From the client’s perspective, this is an extremely frustrating solution. They’ve paid to develop the design of their project vision. Along the way they’ve become attached to the look and feel of the design. Amputation and substitution are hardly welcome solutions to their budget problems. Presenting options to change things like; timing, site logistics, bonding requirements and design shortfalls could potentially solve their budget problem without affecting their vision of the project.

architect

“My architect is confident there are no design shortfalls…”

At a minimum, providing a sense of how these issues have calculable monetary impact on their project shows that you’re not taking advantage of them.

In my experience most GC’s resort to metaphorical hand-waving when it comes to costs outside of material and labor. Get solid on what’s going into your total and you’ll have a distinct advantage making your case to a client. There is no substitute for knowing what you’re talking about.   When clients understand the risk their project presents to a GC, they regard bids with greater circumspection.

The best jobs for clients and contractors are those where everybody wins. Winning bids profitably demands that you stay committed to being the best in your field. Get in there and make your victory count. Because losing what you’ve won is being the best, undone.

 

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© Anton Takken 2015 all rights reserved


Competition

Competition is an integral part of every market. Even companies who enjoy contracts without competitive bidding must be able to prove that they represent market value. In simplest terms market value is the “going rate” for a given project as defined by the winning bid total for similar work. The more a project has in common with past work in that area, the more tightly defined that going rate will be.

It’s very tempting to assume a project will have a consistent and predictable budget regardless of where or when it’s built. Local competition can substantially raise or lower the project cost considerably. Timing is critical as well because firms desperate for work bid differently than firms that are really busy. All costs in business are tied to supply and demand. Competition is the over-arching action that defines how everything comes together on one specific job.

Motivations

Let’s get one thing out-of-the-way right from the start. Companies are not only motivated by profit. For example a company might be bidding a job they don’t really want because they want to maintain a relationship with a client or design team. In other cases a company might be more concerned with keeping a competitor from winning work with a good client.

bait

Some competitors have more… primal motivations.

Some companies bid work they don’t want to appear relevant on the market. Other companies bid unfamiliar work they don’t want as “practice” in order to learn more about the market, the work, and the client. These motivations change for each company whenever they’re; busy, slow, expanding, or contracting.

Stratification

If you’re ever over-run with bids for a given scope of work you’ll likely notice that the bids will conform to a normal statistical distribution which looks like a bell when graphed. The “bell curve” essentially puts the bulk of any data set into the middle with lesser and lesser outliers the further you get from that midpoint value. Simply put, you’ll see that the majority of the bidders agree on the project value. Bidders that are significantly higher or lower are often outliers for a reason. Estimators often forget that small data sets like 3-4 bidders per trade are insufficient to draw broad conclusions from. I’ve encountered projects with thirty bidders per trade where it’s much more apparent what’s really going on.

Bidders with similar economic drivers and motivations will stratify relative to the project value. In practical terms this means that an estimator might receive six bids which form two clusters around different bid values. What this may be telling the estimator is that the lower price group (assuming they include the full scope) is better suited to (or more interested in) the work. General Contractors (GC’s) who don’t tailor their bid list to the work being bid can often be surprised by what appears to be an outlier which is in fact, merely a market-leading subcontractor for that particular type of project.

Relationships are great but the one-size-fits-all view of bid lists only works when you’re looking at similar work all the time. It’s not enough to broadly categorize the work according to building function, the estimator needs to notice how the bidders scope changes on each project. For example, a GC might have built a chain of restaurants with an established team. Chasing a different restaurant chain might seem like a simple transition. However your “old-reliable” masonry subcontractor might look at the new project and notice that the new chain has got 1/10th the amount of work as the old chain’s design. They may not be able to pay their bills charging the same square foot cost for that work because it’s too small. Inviting a smaller company that’s more aligned with the new scope of work will mean lower subcontractor bids.

Some really great companies are very reluctant to admit this basic necessity is critical to winning competitive bidding because they’re afraid to risk working with a small firm.

Babyduck

“Yup, he’s terrifying”

Of course small projects are worth less meaning the risk is naturally reduced, but if these folks thought it through, they’d come to that conclusion themselves!

Conversely, bigger work demands more resources to meet expectations. Even the most stalwart and reliable firms struggle to succeed when overloaded. The smarter of those smaller firms will price big work accordingly. Lacking the resources to handle big work, these firms must plan on renting equipment and hiring temporary workers at high wage premiums. The “little guy with low overhead” is a high bidder compared to market-leading firms of the appropriate size.

Life isn’t fair

Competitive bidding can be discouraging because much of what goes into a win or a loss is concealed from your desk. As a GC bidding, you’ll often know where the competitors numbers came in but how they got there is a function of interpolation, guessing, and investigation. GC’s that chase “public” bids which have no barrier-to-entry for competing firms often assume the solution to all their problems is “more subcontractor coverage”. In reality the subcontractor bids they really need, are the market leaders. Market-leaders can pick and choose who they’d rather bid to. Brute force “get everyone to bid” tactics are common among companies that are out of good ideas. Conversely, companies that are forthright, communicative, and honest tend to attract more than their share of attention. I once doubled the amount of subcontractor quotes I was receiving through a policy of posting bid results within 24 hours of hearing that I’d lost a bid. It actually took less time than answering the innumerable phone calls asking for results AND it proved to the bidders that I wasn’t hiding anything.

Subcontractors struggle terrifically to get honest answers out of GC’s so they rely on the “grapevine” to know what’s really going on. Communication patterns between material reps and subcontractors are noticed, and distributors are alerted. The entire supply chain becomes a feedback channel that’s impressive for its speed and accuracy.   A word of caution to all involved. Relationships drive what happens with that information. Life isn’t fair so you’ve got to learn how the relationships involved will affect your odds of keeping a job you might have won. In fact, those odds might be better viewed as a risk. If your number wins on bid day but your competitor gets the contract, you’re not competing on a viable opportunity. Bidding to a bid-shopping GC establishes the bounds of contract negotiation for the conspirators. The only way to stop bid shopping is for subcontractors to refuse to go along. Losing work to bid shopping is an added risk to bidding to those GC’s. Since estimating is about controlling risk, the obvious solution is to pursue GC’s who don’t cheat.

The lay of the land

Competition is influenced by the overall conditions of the local market. For example, public projects might be led by committee which can lead to mixed messages, contradictory priorities, and onerous funding requirements. Imagine how difficult the Architects task becomes in this situation. Making it worse, many municipalities require competitive bidding on the design services. This can lead to design professionals being obligated to endless committee-driven changes that have consumed far more hours than they’d originally bid.

By the time these projects are labeled “100% Bid documents”, the result is often far from the case. Public work projects are notorious for extensive Addenda during the bid as the design team scrambles to get everything in before the bidders deadline.

As bidders, the estimators must contend with a rapidly changing set of plans with a rigid deadline. Mistakes are much more likely, and municipal contracts are very one-sided.

betweenthelines

“Read between the lines, it’s definitely one sided …”

Bidding these projects can be very difficult which influences how the market will respond. If there are plenty of other projects that GC’s can be bidding on, the public work may suffer from a shortage of interest. Conversely, when everything else “dries up” the GC’s in the area might mob every publicly funded bid-letting.

Higher competition coupled with a weak design increases the pressure on every GC to refine their price. It can be very difficult to be thorough and accurate while remaining competitive.

The lowlands of short-cuts and cutthroats

Some GC’s don’t consult with subcontractors about their scope at all during the bid. Some of them won’t answer their phones or email at all before the deadline. Most of the bid-shoppers I’ve encountered have no questions at all until AFTER their bid. Any mistake in their favor is the subcontractors problem to solve. Their contracts are very specific about items they didn’t ask about at bid time.

Unscrupulous GC’s may simply add up the low bidders along with their direct costs and submit that total “without fee”. These GC’s count on bid-shopping, and sharp dealing on change orders to claw their way back to profitability. Market’s rife with these competitors drive out legitimate firms. Over time, the market decays because their “going rate” of work is preventing subcontractors from paying their bills. It’s a tell-tale sign when a local GC’s are building in their city with out-of-town subcontractors. They burned the local subs until they were forced to chase work elsewhere.   Is it any wonder there’s a shortage of skilled tradesman?

fastlane

Eventually it becomes everyone’s problem.

The highlands of performance and professionalism

Some clients maintain exclusive bid lists of only the best GC’s. Wanting the best and being willing to pay for it, these clients also ensure that their design teams are at the top of their game. Competition at this level has different motivations because performance is more important than price.

GC’s at this level can’t afford to work with risky subcontractors. Therefore it can be an arduous journey for a subcontractor to become an approved bidder. There’s no substitute for knowing your business, and these GC’s will make you prove yourself in many ways. Expect lots of questions, interviews, meetings, and financial reviews as part of their standard procedure. In my experience, these firms are quick to answer your questions, and they are exceedingly careful to maintain a fair bid. The focus is on best value, not low price.

Tricky, complex, or weaseling bid proposals tend to discourage their trust in your firms abilities. Subcontractors should focus on providing proposals that offer a firm commitment to the work described, for the price listed. Working for these GC’s reduces complexity and risk making their work more profitable to the market-leading subcontractor. Subcontractors working for these GC’s often find its remarkably profitable.

Be advised that failure is punished swiftly and soundly. These GC’s can’t afford to let a subcontractor’s performance affect their standing in this rarefied market. It’s therefore important for aspirational subcontractors to meter their commitments according to their current abilities. It’s better to decline an invitation to bid than to be over-committed. In many way’s it’s impressive how the “going rate” for these projects is remarkably reasonable considering the level of service they receive. Competing on the basis of performance has that effect.

challenge accepted

Captured competition

Some clients elect to enter a negotiated agreement with the GC which commits to contracting with the GC exclusively in exchange for “open book” estimating. This means that the client reviews the GC’s estimate and subcontractor proposals prior to approval of the bid amount. A typical requirement is “three or more” bidders per trade to provide some measure of proof that market value pricing has been achieved. GC’s in this position might have a short-list of 3-4 bidders per trade to offer market leading subcontractors reduced competition on their project. This incentive quickly loses its luster when GC’s subject their bidders to endless pricing revisions driven by the GC’s reluctance to select the winning team until the client approves the budget.

The GC’s are attempting to keep prices in line by maintaining competitive bidding. The assumption is that competing against their peers is a greater motivation for fair pricing than helping the GC to close the deal with their client. The invitation to bid is a commitment to contract with the lowest bid, or best value bid submitted by the deadline. Once best value bidder has been established according to the construction documents at bid time, GC’s should hold up their end of the bargain and work with that bidder until a subcontract can be written.

Alternately the GC could consider the bid a “loss” because the bid exceeded the clients budget. GC’s should provide prompt bid results, and inform all bidders that the project will be re-bid once the design has been sufficiently revised to achieve the clients budget. Estimates are not free, showing respect and transparency to the bidders makes their investment in the GC worthwhile.

Interview to bid anew

There are firms who make it a point to interview the “low bidders” in each trade before deciding on who to contract with. On the surface, this appears to be a final check on the estimators work before committing to a significant contract. The difference quickly comes to light when a Project Manager (PM) feigns confusion on the scope, and the bidders proposal in order to create a false opportunity to demand that the subcontractors revise their bid for a final and best proposal.

sharpen your pencil

“I’m gonna need you to sharpen your pencil on this one”

This whole performance is repeated for everyone including the bidder who legitimately won the job. Particularly rude operators make sure to schedule the meetings so competitors will see one another in the lobby. Market leaders are rewarded with a blunt and brutal proposition; cut your bid or risk the job being taken away. These PM’s are trying to create their own “final round” where all savings go into the GC’s pocket. It’s unethical, short-sighted, and the firms turning a blind eye to it are just as guilty as the PM. GC’s quickly gain a reputation for this practice and subcontractors respond by padding bids to them. After all, if you’re going to be “invited” to cut your number if they win, why give them your best number on bid day?

GC’s who have their PM’s bidding their own projects might notice how the market rewards honest professionals with best-value bids. PM’s who start off with really profitable jobs before having a long losing streak on the bid-board may be living with the consequences of their actions.

admitnothing

“I admit nothing.”

What’s the going rate, and where is it headed?

Tight market conditions can lead to an impressive degree of consistency in project pricing. GC’s with consistent project types tend to be especially competitive at similar work. Established project teams with longstanding relationships can be especially efficient, allowing those GC’s to bid with less overhead. It’s easily overlooked, but GC’s with regular clients often spend less money on marketing or even bidding because they can maintain steady revenue. They have every incentive to make the work unprofitable for any interlopers making salvos into their sandbox. These GC’s get known for doing all the work with those clients. Subcontractors can’t afford to bid to GC’s that don’t win. Front-runner GC’s are better investments of their time even if they will face stronger subcontractor competition as a result.

Trust

When the build team is especially tight, a GC’s subcontractors might order their material immediately on project award because they know from repeated experience that the design team will approve their submittals. In many cases this can gain precious time on long-lead items that would otherwise be delayed by a month or more due to the formal approval process. GC’s who know they’ve gained a month or more on the long lead items can build the job faster, thereby reducing their overhead.

The GC’s competitors are stuck with longer schedule durations, higher costs, and greater overhead because they lack that build-team inertia. Building that momentum is a function of fair-dealing, good organization, and a strong grasp on the going rate. Competing against these firms is a bit like stepping into the ring with a black belt.

bangedup

Pick your battles is what I’m saying

They put in the time, energy, and commitment to their craft to become experts at defending their turf. It won’t be pried away easily.

Delivering market value pricing while maintaining profitability is a balancing act. Knowing, really knowing what drives the project cost reduces uncertainty. Checking your results against the going rate tells you where you need to be. Sometimes that means shifting to a different market, a different level of competition, or simply aligning your allies with bid opportunities that maximize your strengths. Competitors are facing the same conditions as you. It’s very satisfying to just beat a real competitor on a profitable job.

Knowledge is power AND responsibility.

There are lots of clients out there working exclusively with a GC they’ve done business with for years. Every company hopes to land such a loyal client. Over the years the GC learns to fill in gaps and smooth over shortcomings in the design to ensure the client is always happy. That costs money. Over time that money get’s added to the proposals one way or another. The distance from a competitive hard-bid market price to what the client is seeing grows.

Hard-bidding GC’s will default to the construction documents only. Design teams that were sheltered from the change orders they caused may be caught flat-footed when they must make changes after the contract. The total build cost may end up higher than “old faithful” but it may take a client a few fiscal quarters to actually see that difference on their ledgers.

Estimators must strive to retain the client by offering outstanding value and an excellent build experience. Obviously this means the build team needs to be equipped to address the design shortcomings without resorting to predictable change orders. Cost-driving design decisions need to be handed during the bid. Offering approximate cost impacts of the most reasonable solutions to the design team can greatly expedite decision-making.

A word of caution. Any price that’s given will be remembered and pulled out whenever it’s helpful to them. These prices become a legacy you’ll be dealing with forever more.

For example:

“We’ve been trying to decide between this ceiling tile and that ceiling tile for this mop closet for several months. What’s the price difference?”

You think to yourself; this mop closet has maybe four tiles in it, I need them to make a decision so I’ll hazard a guess since it can’t cost more than a few bucks on this job.

“Oh I’d guess you’re looking at a fifty cent per tile difference for that.”

Three months later you’re bidding a different job with 53,000 square feet of the more expensive tile and they want to know why it blew their budget!

motivated

We wrote “doing the impossible” into your contract so….

The lesson here is that a GC striving to do the best for their steady client must keep a wary eye on the developing opportunity for a competitor. Who may knock the clients’ door down with their market-leading pricing. It’s a balancing act, but GC’s with regular clients can develop strong subcontractor teams that are unbeatable values inside and outside the negotiated agreement.

Estimators should keep some hard-bidding work in their repertoire to stay sharp and informed. If you can’t profitably win hard-bids, you need to dig in and figure out why. Markets can shift with incredible speed so knowing what’s going on is critical to steering the right course.

Making news

Media, realtor, and trade reports on market conditions can vary in accuracy and timeliness. Local markets with GC’s and subcontractors filing for bankruptcy can still be written up as hotbeds of commercial Real Estate activity. Large chain stores may bring in traveling construction teams. Lots of stuff may get built in your back yard without ever appearing on your bid list.

Developers don’t buy land then hire an architect. By the time the property sale is reported in a Real Estate Journal, the Developers GC is already breaking ground. Planning is in the works for months if not years. Knowing what’s going on at that level takes a lot of networking and communication.

You guy’s staying busy?

Every job walk includes that fateful phrase. The responses vary depending on who’s talking and what’s at stake. Direct competitors tend to be less forthright and more posturing in their responses. Subcontractors’ may be loath to sound “too busy” to a GC who’s shortlisted them on a bid. So again, accuracy is unlikely. Savvy GC’s may take the job walk banter as an opportunity to share which GC’s won previous jobs. They might in turn discover that they faced discrete competition who reached out to subcontractors at the walk. Often bid awards get hung up in negotiations. GC’s comparing notes with Subcontractors might arrive at the full story. Valuable market feedback is exchanged. GC’s who provide prompt and accurate bid results are often rewarded with subcontractors who are more forthcoming with their knowledge. Stiff, formal, and dictatorial job walks lead to cautious subcontractor huddles that exclude the GC. Sometimes job walks reveal more about the market than the project.

Put it all to work

Estimators should strive to pull together all the bits and pieces they can to stay informed. Wherever possible, try to do a bit of good. Competition can reveal character, seize the opportunity to shape your corner of the world with integrity and professionalism. It’s a wonderful experience to win a job that way.

happycouple

 Savor the moment.

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© Anton Takken 2015 all rights reserved


Snowflakes and the hammer

As much as it might deflate our sense of importance, an awful lot of business is about doing something obvious. Many firms suffer through “self-caused disasters” in the form of mismanagement, lost productivity, etcetera.

mush

Artistic rendering of mismanagement, lost productivity, etc….

By far the most frequent self-caused disaster in this industry is over-commitment to clients. I’ll never tire of reminding people that it’s not the job you lose that puts you out of business, but the job you win. Estimators should be ever wary of their firm’s abilities and limitations when bidding.

Snowflakes

Some people have a tendency to believe that their situation is so unique that normal expectations can’t be applied to them. These “snowflakes” inevitably follow patterns of behavior that lead to setbacks, cost/schedule overruns, and angry clients.

Contracts are specifically written to punish failure. If the job falls short, the hammer comes down on the contractor and sometimes their subcontractors. At a business level, it’s obvious that anything contributing to failure is a liability. Yet it’s incredibly common for problems to persist because key players are snowflakes, kept insulated from the havoc they create.

fly

Enough with the trampoline already  … Hey what’d you do with Bob and the sled anyway?

Estimators are frequently reminded that their bids are fine in theory but the build team’s got real world problems to contend with. That’s true because every “snowflake” is unique, fragile, and part of every avalanche. If everyone (estimating included) adhered to best practices and ethical behavior, the real world would look a lot like the estimates.

So what’s the solution?

Aristotle once said : “We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

That is a roundabout way of saying you can’t just demand excellence of snowflakes, and expect them to perform. However establishing a habit of excellence revolves around some very simple concepts.

simple steps

“Yes sir, just five simple steps…”

Every task has a consistent process, with well-defined criteria for successful completion before it starts

Every task has a deadline

Every deadline brings evaluation to correct what’s wrong, or reward what’s working.

Correct deficits before moving on.

Spot check the work for consistency and quality because the two are absolutely interdependent.

But we’re REALLY busy, there’s no time for that.

In my experience, firms without quality control are working harder to produce less. These firms will often have someone run ragged just trying to keep all the workers going. Time is spent “putting out fires” that get their start on jobs that were neglected. It doesn’t take long for one job’s problems to cause systemic failures. Job-sites that are suddenly flooded with manpower indicate an idle job elsewhere. Getting caught up with one client puts them behind with another. As Aristotle would say; “We are what we repeatedly do”. Some firms could be described as little more than incorporated arson.

heroic

You’ve gotta love what you do!

Very often the selfsame person run ragged trying to fix problems, is the one who most needs that culture of excellence.   It’s my opinion that these efforts only work when promoted from the top and the bottom of the company. At every level, it’s crucial to be providing direction, expectation, evaluation, correction, and promotion for the level below.

Intensity can’t replace quality

Lots of companies have a demanding culture that attempts to replace quality with intensity. Long hours and excessive workloads are common with these firms. Lacking a cohesive and well-reasoned plan, these firms often burn bridges with clients, contractors, and employees in their haste to make production. A pattern of long hours, “big pushes”, and heroic efforts to meet deadlines are indicative of a problem. It is lot less theatrical to reliably knock out profitable wins by working steadily. Don’t confuse performance with results. 80 hour work-weeks and dismal hit-rates often go hand in hand.

Evaluation isn’t a punishment

We’ve become a very conflict-averse society which leads people to focus on the negative aspects of evaluation. It’s much easier to “catch” someone doing something right, if you’re checking often enough, and providing meaningful feedback. Praising success without being critical of failure confuses priorities and leads to mediocrity. Cowardice opposes excellence.

don'tstep

“Excellence has a way of standing out from the crowd…”

If oversight is easy, games will be played

A great deal of project control amounts to an effort to evaluate what’s working.   If everything is evaluated “by the numbers” as in audit’s, or accounting reports, the natural response for some is to “game” the system. Rigid, formulaic, and quota-driven evaluations are as easy to develop as they are to game. A culture of excellence won’t be achieved through “easy” oversight. Managers dressed for golf should take note of where the games are really being played.

You get more of whatever you reward

Quotas can become a factor in decision making even for well-meaning employees. For example, a sudden increase in traffic tickets at the end of a month is hardly indicative of better policing or a sudden surge in crime.   It’s merely a pivot from their daily work to get management off their back. Rewarding excellence requires managers who work to cultivate excellence. Bureaucracy is rarely the right tool for cultivating excellence. There are no short-cuts or work-a rounds with something this simple.

scooter

Brian was really big on short-cuts, he’s… in a better place now.”

Working in cycles is better than running in circles

I’ve written before about my “one pass” method for takeoffs. Summing it up quickly, I believe a great deal of mistakes come from scanning a page looking for something relevant to a single discipline, detail, or issue. Looking at the information with “filters on” tends to leave out the unique, oddball, and painfully expensive items. People don’t miss huge contributing elements of projects too often, but they regularly miss a solitary note for a specialty item. Specialty / oddball stuff gets missed because we’re not looking for it. If you’re objective is to note everything on the page regardless of discipline, the filters are taken off.

Tied to the one-pass method is the process milestone. “Known-good” points in your process are created by reviewing your information to check for errors. Generally speaking, errors found in these reviews are MUCH easier to fix. There’s also the benefit of repeated exposure to your data and your process which further hones your judgment of every successive stage. This is particularly helpful when compiling, transferring, importing, or exporting data from one system to another. “Check the chute” to make sure the data made it from one end to the other without problems. I’ve found that making sure I’ve checked each part of a project three different ways substantially cuts down on errors. Plus it lets me sleep at night!

Meetings, the import/export data function of the business world

It may seem odd to put it this way but meetings are often about transferring data from one system of thinking to another. We get used to the shortcomings of computer systems which require data re-formatting, or sorting before they’ll work properly. People are often similar yet we’ve all sat through meetings where one party won’t consider the responsibilities, limitations, and motivations of the other party, leading to inevitable communication breakdowns. I had a business professor who recommended that we conclude every meeting with the following three questions;

What are we working on?

Who is it for?

When is it due?

Really basic stuff that rarely happens because we’re all so sure that somebody else is going to do it.

Nature abhors a vacuum

Earlier I touched on how conflict-averse society has become. Innovations like email and text-messaging have created opportunities for managers to carefully compose their responses to challenges from the sidelines rather than provide direction face-to-face. A time-stamped record of clearly worded directions can be an especially effective way to lead. However some folks attempt to avoid accountability for problems while maintaining a window to claim credit for successes. The most common tactic is to “play for time” by not responding to an issue or just not addressing the real issue. This leadership vacuum is transparent to all concerned.

behind you

“We know what you’re up to back there”

Nature, including human nature, abhors a vacuum. Opportunists will take their chances at extorting whatever they can. Jobs run late, over budget, under-staffed as a result. Some will follow the leaders example and concern themselves with only their posteriors as well. Every snowflake manager who thinks they can hide out until somebody solves their problems will eventually feel the hammer fall on them.

“I didn’t act so I could say I didn’t know”

“Plausible deny-ability” is a terrible reason to do anything. It’s not conflict avoidance, it’s premeditated political maneuvering at the obvious cost of doing the right thing. The more contrived, and convoluted the reasons to depart from best practices, the more certain they are to cause things to fail. Anyone who plans to fail in a way that lays the blame elsewhere has effectively chosen to hurt the company to get ahead. Parasites work along the same lines.

I sure hope nobody told you this would be easy!

Often we’re in a position to see a leadership failure where professional decorum, contractual relationships, or politics lead to silence. Failure is punished regardless of who’s to blame so we all have a vested interest in doing our best to fill leadership shortfalls.

It may be surprising to hear, but Architects spend a great deal of their time running management meetings that were never really addressed in their education. Few Colleges provide robust leadership / management training for Architects. I can’t imagine the struggle a new Architect must face learning this stuff as they go along. Knowing this, it’s incumbent upon all professionals to aid when they can. Leadership is not always about authority, position, or social status. If you know what you’re talking about and speak truthfully, others will hear you.

It can be difficult to admit that jobs go wrong because of choice we make. However the advantage of a solid process and unclouded vision of what’s really going on greatly reduces the odds of making a bad call. With strong fundamentals and a good attitude, it’s amazing how far you can go. Let excellence become your habit.

realizations-2

 

 

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© Anton Takken 2015 all rights reserved


Training

It’s been my experience that most estimators were trained on the job. In fact most professionals in the Construction industry studied at the “School of hard knocks”. Construction Management programs at Colleges or Universities will typically include a course on estimating. Speaking from personal experience, I can say that these programs focus primarily on “bean counting”. That is to say that Quantity Take Off’s (QTO) utterly dominated the lesson plan. Cursory instruction on material pricing guides like “RS Means” were provided to allow students to generate pseudo estimates. Some classes required group project presentations on the mock estimate.

The mechanics of estimating     

Quantifying the work, tabulating your results and correlating market pricing is the over-arching mechanical process of estimating. There’s a continuum for detail ranging from entirely conceptual to unit pricing. Much ado is made of the differences between square foot costs and detailed estimates.   In fact, I had a teacher who insisted that EVERY estimate should progress from conceptual to square foot, to detailed as a means to “hone in” on the “right” answer. In practice I’ve found that “free” estimating work should be proportional to design completion and client commitment.

bounce house

Sometimes hot air is a structural element.

“Pricing” and “90%” drawing sets are often budgetary exercises with no sincere client commitment to hiring the low bidder during slow markets. Design teams inundate the market with pricing exercises that rarely lead to contracts. Since most pricing exercises are quick turnaround it’s important to understand that being too cheap is a problem because the final design invariably involves costly items not present on the budgeting plans.

“Hurry up and tell me how much I’ve got to spend”

There’s an old adage that applies here; “Quick, Accurate, Cheap, you can only pick two”. As a result, most conceptual estimates strive for accuracy over low bidding.

A conceptual estimate might be done on the basis of several references. The most common is comparing the conceptual project to similar completed jobs. Rough approximations of gross assemblies are very useful here. Think in terms of ” X number of restrooms, and Y number of floors”. Square foot costs can be helpful for conceptual estimating when the area is fairly homogenous as in a large office or a warehouse building. A lot of square foot costs fall apart when decorative elements and existing structural concerns are undefined.

The ball and bucket

Lots of people confuse detailed with accurate. As a thought exercise consider the following.

Let’s say you’re trying to perfectly center a ball in a round bucket. A very small, perfectly round ball would obscure the least amount of visible area and might allow for measurement tools to gauge how well centered it is. Being small, it’s unlikely to sit still for measurements, leaving you chasing it around.

Now imagine a ball that’s the size of the bucket. It can’t help but perfectly center itself. What it lacks in fine detail, it makes up for by being error-proof.

Estimating is about controlling risk which is how centered the ball is in this example. In order to quantify the risk it’s important to work from more than one direction. Myopic focus on minute differences might well reduce risk. However the risk you’re concerned about is what can actually hurt your firms ability to profitably complete the job. Controlling that risk is about an overall process that’s scaled to fit your specific challenges.

buckleup

Pictured: Room for improvement

For example the price gap between low and second low is one means of defining the risk in a given scope of work. If that risk is too high, it’s indicative of a substantial difference in bidders, scope inclusions, or adherence to specifications.

Lots of instructors teach trainee’s to relentlessly pound through the low bidders scope looking for holes to explain the price gap. Truthfully, a great deal of an estimators time on bid day is doing just this. However, time is short so prioritizing is a necessity. A great deal of risk is alleviated by working with reliable, trustworthy and professional bidders who are committed to working with your firm.

Spending an hour on the phone de-tangling the riddled mess of a hack bidder is its own risk because it consumes time to review other more professional proposals.

clown

Warning; the clowns are out there.

The project risk is collective, so time spent firming up the bulk of your bids can have a profound impact. Balance your efforts accordingly.

If an estimator was perfectly certain they had put together the most competitive and complete bid covering all the project scope, it shouldn’t be possible to have a lower bid without making a mistake and/or losing money.

This is a crucial aspect of estimating that is not driven by detailed QTO’s or orderly spreadsheets. If your bid depends on subcontracted work, you are relying on your bidders to secure your victories. Established firms with good reputations have a profound advantage in this regard. Estimators in training must understand the absolute necessity of maintaining a good reputation.

Most training programs fail to show students how to avoid making bad impressions. There are many aspects of the bid process that revolve around pushing information. Getting the plans out to the invited subcontractors, communicating job walk dates, sharing addenda, and so forth. Faceless emails blind copying hundreds of subcontractors are indistinguishable from a computer-generated message. The information needs to be disseminated, and it’s often routine. However the reason you’re bidding is to capture an opportunity. Bids are won via group effort, be sure to communicate that you’re picking players for the winning team.

Training programs should stress the leadership aspects of estimating. Subcontractors will have lots of questions. Plans aren’t perfect which is why an estimator exists in the first place. Firm decision-making is paramount to success. CD’s are sometimes ambiguous so you must commit to a plan of action and deliver on that commitment via clear direction to subcontractors. RFI’s should be written so that even weak design-team responses generate clear directives. “Yes or no” questions are particularly appropriate even if it means you’ve got to draw a sketch to make the question clear. RFI’s should be written so that owners, contractors, and tradesman can fully understand what’s going on.

from this angle

Artistic rendering of the Architects perspective.

Going hand-in-hand with decision-making is enforcing the stated expectations. Deadlines are necessary tools of your craft. Everything has a deadline including RFI responses, Addenda postings, and proposals. Bidder instructions should provide all necessary information in an organized and readable fashion.

A quick review of “typical” invites to bid would reveal how technological reliance has eroded professional standards. Emails from anonymous addresses demanding commitment to bid jobs that aren’t defined are common. Some don’t include the bid deadline, their own company name, or even the city in which the job is located. Links to password protected websites crammed with enormous files (and long download times) are commonplace.

The “mechanics” of estimating are fairly straight-forward but won’t necessarily lead to winning work or controlling risk. Few training programs involve a developed decision-making process to get traction with your individual bids. Much like modern management training programs, a great deal of “there are many ways to achieve your objectives” is presented instead of a more compartmental (and successful) approach.

Priorities

There are some basic priorities/ directives that every estimator should have to “ground” their decision making. I’d outline the hierarchy as follows:

  • Be ethical, honest, and forthright with everyone all the time.
  • Protect your firm, your client, and your subcontractors best interests.
  • If it’s in the construction documents (CD’s), you should know about it and bid accordingly.
    • If you’ve got subs bidding, it’s YOUR responsibility to make sure they know (and include) all the scope.
    • If you know something’s missing from the CD’s, it’s YOUR responsibility to bid reasonably.
  • Bid to win. Know your market, and where you (and your team) fit. Estimates are not free.
  • If you don’t have it in writing, you don’t have it at all.
  • If you don’t know, don’t guess. RFI’s, exclusions, clarifications, allowances, and alternates offer options to reduce risk.
  • Keep track, stay current, communicate, and you’ll constantly improve.
  • A “win” is only a success if the risk is managed and the work is profitable.
  • Time is of the essence so you must;
    • Prioritize on high-value issues
    • Make your estimate system nimble, understandable and reliable
    • Communicate efficiently, effectively, and consistently.
    • Constantly seek to accelerate QTO’s.
  • Make concrete progress with every effort.
  • Get “above the fray” to see what’s really going on
    •  Job costs are driven by many factors including the schedule, client, and site logistics.
    •  Politics, relationships, corruption and institutional inertia play a role in every market.
    • Weak design teams, bad clients, and indecisive leaders add to project risk
    • Hiring a sub for work that’s too big for them is a serious risk for all concerned.
  • Check your work THEN trust your results.

Think like an estimator

So much of estimating is considered a blend of accounting and voodoo when in reality it’s just a way of thinking. Sure you could painstakingly add up everything you can think of that goes into a project. Assuming you’ve thought of everything, and that you knew what everything costs, you’d eventually arrive at a number.

faceplant

It’s harder than it sounds.

Alternately, you could look at the project as an object bounded by expectations. Training an estimator should involve teaching them what entire projects actually cost. So much time is spent memorizing the square foot cost of paint or the unit cost of a faucet. Very little time is spent developing a perspective on what market value is for the entire project.

From there, estimators need to learn what drives the cost of certain projects. Define the key players. As a surprising twist, it’s not always driven by the most costly trades. If a particular scope of work is hurting productivity, it can dramatically influence the prices of other trades. Many successful estimators capitalize on an opportunity to do things differently.

Teaching on the job

When it’s your turn to teach someone about estimating, remember the investment others made in you. The margins of error are small so it’s critical to have high expectations of anyone taking this work on. That being said take the time to explain why something must be done a certain way. I’ve spent years developing an approach that works for me. In many cases, I have tried a different way of doing things which didn’t work as well. Share those lessons right away and save them the time.

fastlearning

Hey we got you some help, just teach them how to get started…

I’ve never had a reduction in my workload when taking on a trainee. In fact, trainee’s were most likely to be hired when the work was so demanding we needed help! Despite the difficulty of meeting onerous deadlines with inexperienced staff it’s critical to maintain perspective. I firmly believe that concrete progress is the only measure of training success. To start it’s your responsibility to establish clear standards, expectations and deadlines. Correct the work as needed before moving on. Balance the need to teach the material against demanding a perfect report. Lots of estimators get hung up on any detail being wrong. This can stall the process by demanding edits, revisions, edits, revisions, and so on. Wherever possible catch everything that’s wrong on the first review, follow them to their workstation and have them correct it so you can give them their next assignment.

“Hey Chief, one quick question…”

Some trainee’s will struggle and that’s part of the process. Make sure that tasks are brief enough that there isn’t time to wallow in a problem. If you’ve struck the proper balance, you won’t be interrupted in the mean time. Be sure to gradually include more opportunities for judgment calls on their part. The goal should be to develop decision-making skills. Asking why they did what they did gives them credit for thinking things through. Explaining what you’d do differently respects their intelligence and guides their next efforts.

At each step review that you’ve made concrete progress towards what you want them to know. Too much emphasis is laid on “practice makes perfect” which leads to talented trainees counting doors for way too long. Once they’ve done it right, make it clear that you expect good work in the future. Sure it’s a lot of pressure, but remember that you’re checking their work just like someone did for you. Estimators must learn to work as though there’s no net to catch them.

“I wondered if you knew where I’d find this thing you asked me about?”

Along with judgment calls, it’s necessary to teach trainees how to find their own answers. Most firms default to “ask the person training you“. I believe it’s necessary to develop fact-finding skills early on. When an opportunity presents itself, demonstrate a question you’re looking to answer. Whether you’re calling trusted subs for insights, or internet searches for related topics, it’s important to show how you get this done. Gradually task them with new searches to guide their judgment. Lots of time can be lost looking for these answers so monitor their progress.

Firm foundations

As trainees gradually move on to active projects, make sure you’ve equipped them to do the job. Weak communication skills are best addressed before trainee’s are contacting bidders, architects, and clients. Lots of firms have shaky-voiced interns stammering their way through calls to subcontractors. Five word responses may be fine for texting friends but it’s inappropriate in business. Making the wrong impression can limit their potential.

thuglife

“No Wally, you’re not getting a promotion this week either”

Give trainee’s the direction they need to start off on the right foot. Above all, focus on outcome rather than intention because that’s how the world responds to your actions.

Lead decisively and expect trainees to act decisively. Cowardice, hedging, and sand-bagging have no place in professional estimating. It’s an honorable pursuit that can be very rewarding for those who apply themselves. Encourage trainee’s to act on principled thought, and calculated reasoning instead of fear. We’re all concerned that we’ll miss something. A sound process with solid execution silences doubts better than any amount of guesswork. Teaching others has a way of bringing clarity to what you know. Contributing your knowledge can build a legacy that will outlast all the projects you’ve won.

 

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© Anton Takken 2015 all rights reserved