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Why overhead should not be figured as a percentage

Don’t get trapped

There are quite a few traps that people fall into when it comes to overhead and profit.  Perhaps it comes from a desire to simplify operations or a lack of follow through but one thing is certain: percentage based overhead calculations aren’t accurate most of the time.  It’s possible that a given percentage on a given project will end up covering the overhead costs for that project’s duration.  It’s just unlikely.

Overhead is not optional, imaginary, or driven by profit

Lets start with the nuts and bolts of overhead.  These are the costs of doing business.  Everything from office rent to printer paper get’s paid out of overhead.  Depending on how a company is structured, overhead may also pay the wages of staff members.  With rare exceptions, overhead costs are predictable and occur at regular intervals.

Why overhead should not be figured as a percentage

Like ammunition for example…

 

The key element I’d like to call attention to is that overhead must be paid as a function of time.  Rent will come due every month – it has nothing to do with how well the jobs are going.  As a bare-bones issue, overhead is a non-negotiable sum you must be earning at all times or you’re losing money.  Even non-profit companies MUST make overhead or they’ll go under.

Getting a handle on it

Figuring out overhead isn’t complicated, nor does it need to be.  I recommend taking the entire years worth of overhead costs (or projections) because some items are only payable annually.  For example a subscription to a trade publication, or the renewal fee for a license.  For companies with several years of records, I would encourage you to calculate the years separately to see year to year differences.  We’re looking to establish a baseline, not split hairs.

So annual costs (or projections) in hand it’s time to add for inflation and growth.  For the sake of simplicity let’s say that in an improving and expanding market, a 5% add is in order.  For a depressed market, it could be lower.  Unless you’ve got great reason to do so, don’t go negative.  Take this annual figure and divide by twelve for monthly overhead. Divide the total overhead by 52 for weekly.  Take your weekly and divide by five for working days.

Notice how I didn’t take the annual and divide by 365 to get days?  Working weekends isn’t typical for most businesses.  There are 260 working days (no holidays) in a year.  One way to handle the holidays is to assume 50 working weeks per year which give 252 working days per year.  The goal is to shift the overhead costs onto the working days.

Each job pays its own way

Now that we’ve got the daily overhead rate we need to answer some job specific questions.  First off, how many jobs will be going at the same time?  Each job needs to carry its fair share of the load.  Looking at company history to see what the average concurrent job count is will prove helpful here.  If there’s reason to believe you’ll have four projects going at all times, the overhead rate applied to each job should be a quarter of the total.  I call this office commitment. Be warned that each job is different.  If you’re looking at a very large job, it could consume all the companies resources for its duration.  Similarly, a “hurry up” job that requires you to drop everything would affect its bearing on your overhead.  You will quickly see that faster is cheaper.  A notoriously disorganized client, architect, or owner should indicate that a higher portion of your overhead costs will be attributed here.

Why overhead should not be figured as a percentage

Pictured above: A typical Owner, Architect, Contractor meeting.

Delayed gratification (and payment)

So are we done?  In a word, no.  The sad fact of the matter is that work is nearly never paid for as quickly as it’s done.  A standard practice in the construction industry is to withhold payment equaling 10% of contract value until the project is complete. A heavy equipment contractor would obviously complete their work well before a building is completed.  That contractor may not see full payment for several months!  Any financing costs arising out of their need to cover bills while awaiting final payment must be paid out of overhead which can be factored by the actual delay in getting paid.  Running a quick scenario, imagine it takes two weeks for that heavy equipment contractor to do a job and there’s about $1,000 a week in overhead for the operation.  If it takes sixteen weeks to get the last 10%  then $200 worth of the overhead is accruing interest for four months.  Let’s say it’s a credit card interest level of 15% which makes the additional cost $30 for the first month, $34.50 for the second month, $39.75 for the third month, and $45.64 for the last month.  Because it’s compounding, that delay ended up costing $149.89 to the contractor even if they got on to other projects while awaiting payment.

Taking stock of all these factors, you will arrive at a total overhead cost.  The overhead is not driven by how many people are working on site because those folks are job-billable.  The overhead is not driven by project cost because again, all of that is job billable.  Project duration, inflation, payout delay and office commitment are the only factors driving overhead.

Unintended consequences

Getting back to the headline of this article, I’d like to illustrate why percentile overhead calculations are so ruinous.  First off they work on the assumption that all jobs will consume overhead proportional to project cost.  This has the effect of charging too much overhead for jobs you’re really efficient at, and charging too little overhead for jobs you’re not as efficient at.  By extension this causes bids to run higher on jobs that more perfectly align with the companies abilities.  Conversely this causes bids to run lower on jobs that don’t align as well.

Let’s say we’re a company that furnishes and installs millwork.  There are two jobs to install millwork in commercial spaces.  One job specifies more expensive laminate material than the other but every other factor is the same.  Does it make sense therefore to bid a higher overhead amount for the nicer laminate?  Jobs are often won and lost by such amounts.  A set overhead percentage will only fit one dollar value perfectly.  Everything else is a bet against the future that you’ll pay for in lost overhead, or lost jobs.

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© Anton Takken 2014 all rights reserved


Types of Estimates

There are several different types of estimates which roughly correspond to design development.  The conceptual estimate is typically the most coarse.  The infamous “napkin sketch” is all you can hope for here.

Types of Estimates

So this is our floor plan for the nine story office tower…wait, why are you crying?

I’ve had a few that looked more like grease stains than a plan.  These are notoriously short notice and poorly defined.  When used purely for a rough idea of cost, the conceptual estimate is very helpful.  There is a difference between a conceptual estimate and a Design-Build estimate.  Conceptual estimates should not be used for contracting purposes.  They’re a courtesy to provide feedback to a client’s design team.

Design Build

In a Design-Build bidding a narrative of what the client wants is provided and it’s the General Contractor’s (GC) responsibility to figure it all out.  In some cases, specific trades are singled out to be Design-Build when the owner has hired an Architect but would rather not hire an Engineer directly.  Design Build projects are sometimes called “Turn-key” meaning that the client has to do nothing but pay the bill and the GC will turn the keys over to them.

Unit Pricing

Unit price bidding is popular in certain market segments.  I’ve encountered it in Civil construction, government-funded projects, large-scale commercial developer projects, and in situations where a Landlord and their tenant(s) must split the bill.  On the surface unit pricing seems like it’s an easy thing to do.  There are two reasons this can be risky.  The first is that anything you write down will be used to the owners advantage.  Unit pricing is used as often for deducting work as it is adding work.  It’s common for the final arrangement to be unprofitable as a result.

Types of Estimates

The second reason its risky is that unit pricing is rarely aligned with industry standard take offs.  For example: “Provide the unit price for a parking lot pole light.”  The client is expecting a price for a working pole light.  They aren’t considering that the light requires circuiting that’s priced by length.  Since it doesn’t tell you the length (because they don’t know themselves), the unit price becomes a judgment call.  As always read the subcontractor exclusions and carry them into your proposal where appropriate.

Hard Bidding

Hard bidding is the absolute most common format.  The plans and specifications are taken as the literal minimum.  The low bidder wins, simple as that.  Everything from garden sheds to airports are bid this way.  At every level this is a stressful undertaking.  For General Contractors, they have to be able to input all of the various trades, track the low bid, figure out if the bids are complete, compile and transmit the bid to the client.  Depending on the market, the job, and the attention that’s been drawn to it, this may result in a deluge of last-minute proposals any one of which will make or break your chance of being the low bidder.  It’s exhilarating when everything is working, and it’s desperately stressful when something breaks down.  It follows that these are the most detailed estimates.  I’ll be posting with helpful tips, tools, and techniques in the future.

Negotiated Agreement

Negotiated work is a contractual relationship between the owner and the General Contractor.  The owner has agreed not to put the work out to bid in exchange for unfettered access to the bidding information.  These are often called “open book” bids.  Since the General Contractor is not concerned with beating their competition, they can focus on doing their utmost to reduce the potential for change orders, work delays, and unspecified materials being a part of the project.  Here the General Contractor is trying to fill in any gaps left by the plans and specs.  Typically the GC will be more leisurely about reviewing the bids and they often ask more questions of subcontractors.  They “have the job” but they must price it right for it to be profitable.  These estimates are not only detailed, they often go above and beyond to offer solutions to problems found in the plans.

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© Anton Takken 2014 all rights reserved


Organizing your work

It all seems so easy.  The owner sent you some plans and a deadline – you answer with a dollar amount.  What’s so hard about that?  Well everything’s neatly included in the plans and specifications.  You could go through and measure everything, count everything, and categorize everything.  Then you could take that stack and price each bit.  Stack all the bits together and add them up and what have you got aside from a tower of paper?  You’ve got a rickety and slow operation like most beginners.  Here’s the thing; every moment spent quantifying a given thing needs to be efficient by being  logical, repeatable, and also changeable.  There are two things that will remain constants if you spend any time as an estimator.  The first is that you’ll have to get faster with each job just to keep up, and the second is that you’re going to be interrupted right when it’s most critical to keep working.

A little perspective on precision

Let’s start with a bit of perspective.  The more complex a project is, the more subcontractors will be needed to do the work.  As a General Contractor (GC) looking to subcontract this work, the GC’s estimate needs to be set up to reflect what you expect each subcontractor to bid.   This can be as simple as a list of critical features or it can be as precise as counting individual bricks.  So how precise do you need to be?  Well the answer to that lies in what you want to do.  Precision gives you flexibility at the cost of time, whereas coarse measurements may not be useful enough to merit their work.  No matter where you settle, it’s much harder to fill in information once you’ve started.

Flexibility for the win

The reason precision equates with flexibility is best shown through an example.  Take an interior concrete slab.  With very little trouble you can figure out the area of the slab.  If you wrote down “Interior slab: 200 SF” you could probably use that information to check bids for furnish and install interior slab work.  However, concrete firms will provide direct quotes for the material.  Buying the material directly gets rid of the subcontractor’s material markup which is great.  However concrete is bought by the cubic yard, not the square foot!   Any mistakes can be costly.

Do your own work

You might be thinking, “Just ask the concrete guy how many yards they had figured to install”.  Here’s the thing: a subcontractors quote can be viewed as a promise to do the job for a sum of money.  If they short change themselves on material, they still have to honor the bid.  If you’re not paying them as a consultant, you have no reasonable guarantee of accuracy.  Plus it’s bad form to assume that they have to share information that may help their competition.  With your own measurements and pricing you can error check.  For example, if you have a furnish and install quote that’s lower than the cost of material you have very good reason to suspect there’s an error on that quote.  Ethical issues aside, it’s important to see that establishing your budget on bad  information is going to cause a problem for your company.

Organizing your work

Sure they look the part, but you don’t want to trust their figures…

 

How it all comes together

Relating back to organizing your work it’s important to classify the ways a given scope of work may be approached in bidding.  They could furnish and install (also called turnkey),  They could furnish material only (often called vendors), they could also install only (often called installers, erectors, carpenters, or millwrights).  Another option is for your company to self perform a task.  If you want all these options, you’ve got to break things down to whatever material units you’d get quoted.  If you can live with only turnkey bids, it’s fine to only measure assemblies like “Chandeliers 100 each “.  Complex trades like Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing (MEP) fall into this camp.  It’s simply not realistic to purchase materials for them to install, and even if you did, they get better pricing due to volume purchasing so no money would be saved.  The degree of precision can be called granularity.

Continuing with the classification, the work must be divided into the pertinent trades.  The Construction Specification Institute is a uniform standardizing body that has assigned a “Master Format” CSI number to each scope of work.  Originally there were 16 major divisions, which were revised to 32 in 2004.  On projects with a well-developed specification manual, the divisions and subdivisions will be listed out in the table of contents.  The RS Means Building Construction Cost Data book provides a handy reference for  how work is priced.  Look in the links section for more on CSI Master Format and the RS Means books.

C.S.I. vs. Trades

While this provides a very precise means to divide up the work, it’s also a potentially tedious endeavor.  Electrical for example has many subdivisions all of which are normally included in the electrical contractors bid.  This can be a very frustrating thing because it often feels as though there is no rhyme or reason as to why some divisions are so fragmented.

Organizing your work

Other times the reasons are fairly obvious…

 

Get used to asking subcontractors what they do and don’t do.  It’s absolutely worth the time to keep a database that references each CSI Code to a subcontractor.  Most companies have a contacts database that is severely reliant on user knowledge.  For example a database that only allows a search for a company by name or address but not what they do. Some bid-letting software includes subcontractor databases.  Be advised that it’s no guarantee that the subcontractors actually agree with what the software say’s they’ll do.

So assuming we’ve determined what trades will be bidding, and how they’ll be bidding, we have a general level of precision in mind for each situation.  Give yourself a moment with the plans and develop a narrative of what’s going on with the project.  A reasonable synopsis would include what is getting demolished, what is getting added, and generally speaking how is that going to happen?  Take note of unfamiliar things and scan for overall symmetry.  For example a roof top unit would likely appear on Architectural, Structural, Mechanical, Plumbing, and Electrical plans.

Setting up the pipeline

Now take a moment and consider how you’re going to deal with the information you generate.  It’s here that technology and technique must be in line with one another. We’ll save bidding software discussions for a future post but it’s necessary to touch on the point that you need to know how the information gets from the plans into your estimate, and how you can manipulate that information once it’s there. It does no good to build a template that doesn’t accept the way you’ve quantified the work.

Clean sweep

One method is the “one pass take off”.  You get everything on the page before going on to the next one.  For example,the finish floor plan. You measure the length of the sides of the room.  From this you get the perimeter and the area of the room.  If you are doing this on paper drawings, You could write the perimeter in linear feet (LF) and the area in square feet (SF) inside of that room on the plan.  A quick check of ceiling and wall heights give all the needed variables to calculate the Drywall, Tile/Carpet, Floor base, Paint/ Wallcovering, and acoustic ceilings. Each of which would be separately cataloged according to the estimate template.

Not only is this fast, it’s secure because all the relevant details of a plan have been recorded before moving on.  Plus by looking at a feature as an assembly you are more likely to see where trades will overlap.  Help your future self and leave a trail of where you’ve been and what you’ve measured.  If you’re doing things manually, use colored pencils and shade whatever you’ve completed.  Estimating programs have various ways of doing the same thing. Some people prefer to scan the entire drawing set one trade at a time.  While this provides a fairly linear logical exercise.  It’s easier to miss something you’re not looking for as you scan all the pages in the set.  Studying one page at a time tends to reveal small scope items.  Also, a considerable amount of time is lost flipping the sheets around looking for things to take off.

In all of this it’s important to ask yourself what questions will come up on bid day.  What do you actually need to answer these questions?  Software can be a tremendous boon by automating various processes.  It can also strip an estimator of their ability to think on their feet.  Last minute changes are part of the business.  Whenever  a sub couldn’t answer a question without “running it through the software” it seemed like the program was calling the shots. They were constantly “going to the oracle” for answers they should know. However there are times where it’s valid.  For example the MEP trades are very complex in that they use thousands of different parts that are subject to price swings making it a daily struggle to stay on top of the current price.  Still it’s annoying to wait a half hour to get the adder for another outlet.

Build your own tools

This leads to what should be considered to be the mark of a professional: building your own tools.  Earlier we covered an example of quick calculations for an interior room.  Office buildings have these kinds of things all the time.  Taking the time to make a spreadsheet that allows you to enter the room number, room perimeter, room area, wall height, and ceiling height for each room allows you to move quickly from measurement to sorting.  Some plans will have a finish legend which is organized by room number.  Mimicking the finish legend that same spreadsheet can be made to allow a selection for flooring, ceiling, paint color, and so on.  Building on basic formulas it’s quite easy to have a summary total for each trade.

Test before you trust

Beware of building a monster!  Spreadsheets that go sideways with a weeks’ worth of data entry is a wasted week.  You should build spreadsheets gradually and test them often.  Over time you’ll have a series of tools that make you faster, more accurate, and less stressed out.

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© Anton Takken 2014 all rights reserved


Principles of Estimating

“So…how do you figure out how much it’ll cost?”

There’s a lot to it but everything builds on one concept; estimating is about systematically getting closer to the answer.  The most simplistic method is bounding the answer.  By defining the range that contains your answer, you’ve reduced the problem.  The next step is to determine what you need to know to reduce that range further.  As counter-intuitive as it may seem, asking yourself what you don’t need to know can be very helpful.  The idea is to reduce uncertainty by systematically answering questions that divide the range sort of like playing “I spy”. For example: a client asks for conceptual pricing on an office remodel.  The number of occupants and what paint colors they’d choose are irrelevant.  The square footage of the space won’t change in a simple remodel and the cost of paint isn’t typically driven by color choice.

Right off the top it’s important to understand that it’s very hard to remove all uncertainty.  Better design, or past-project similarity can help to reduce the uncertainty but some will always remain.  I like to think that estimating is actually about controlling risk rather than pricing stuff.  There are lots of ways to arrive at a price – heck you might even win a competitive bid by throwing darts at numbers.  But here’s the thing that makes the estimating mindset different from an Entrepreneur.  It’s never the job that you lose that puts you out of business, it’s the job you win.  Look at it this way, the total bid amount is the company’s minimum risk for not completing the job.  That risk goes down as the project reaches milestones, and only goes away entirely after the warranty period.  All the projects a company has underway have risk which added together amounts to running risk.  More than one company has had to drop everything to jump on a project that was going badly.  That can make every job suffer which is why it’s important for someone to be thinking about this at the bid stage.  Every time I think about the risk to reward ratio in the construction market, my respect for the entrepreneurial spirit grows.

Principles of Estimating

Especially the cat washing contractors…

 

So how do you reduce risk?  As a bidder there are several approaches.  The most common is to define what is included and what is excluded from your bid.  Contract parlance refers to these as inclusions, and exclusions which appear on the bid proposal.  These can range from standards like “daytime working hours”, to more project specific details like “excluding carpet on floor two”. Remember they’re called “General Contractors” instead of “Builders” for a reason!

Another way to reduce uncertainty is to put part of the work out to bid. Things go out to bid for several reasons.  The first and most obvious is to use market competition to keep the price down.  A  less obvious reason is to reduce risk.  Let’s say that three subcontractors bid on a project.  The two low bidders are 3% apart.  If you win the bid with the low bidder amount and later learn they’re missing something huge, or they back out, you can hire the 2nd low for 3% more which makes your minimum risk 3% for that trade.

A good principle of business is to have a policy of “the record is always on”.  Anything you put in writing, you should expect to be saved and used later.   The subcontractor bids will have inclusions and exclusions on them.  Comparing them against each other is very illuminating.  It won’t take long to see that exclusions are the embodiment of the expression “The devils in the details“!  I’ll get more into reading bids which is called “Bid scoping” in a later post.

For now, it’s important to see that risk is contained by knowing the spread (difference between bids), and  knowing the differences in the exclusions.  Sometimes the high bidder picked up on something significant that the competition didn’t which spells disaster if you’d hired the low bidder.  Remember to call your clients attention to anything you’ve included that was tricky to see, or understand.  For example: the plans may show something is existing that you find missing during your job walk.

It’s a terrific illusion that the construction documents will provide enough information to know every quantity, every time.  In the commercial construction world, the owners and architects expect the estimator to “make reasonable assumptions” often based on “standard means and methods” when a design fails to cover something.  The consequence of these expectations is the practice of stating assumptions via inclusions and exclusions on the bid form or proposal letter. Control risk by clearly defining what you are and are not including in your scope of work.

This brings us to the Estimators Paradox which is:

When you win you worry about what you overlooked, but when you lose, you worry it’s because of something you shouldn’t have included.

Next I’d like to cover a few principles of effective estimating.  It’s hard work to count and measure everything on a project.  Conceptual or budgetary efforts for a client or an Architect are “free” services that consume valuable resources.  Many times historical data, allowances and minimal research will provide adequate accuracy for the purpose.  Having Subcontractors price conceptual work should be studiously avoided whenever possible.  Every bid should be retained for use as historical pricing.  I’ll get more into how to track your files to make this easier in a later post.

Historical pricing is only as useful as your records, and your efforts to improve on what you’ve learned.  At the General Contracting level there is a tremendous range of acceptable detail  for estimating measurements called Quantity Take offs.  (QTO).  In my experience, a more detailed QTO is a more useful QTO provided the detail exists on the plans.  For example, If the plans resolution is to the nearest foot, there is no advantage to QTO’s carried to the nearest inch.  While on the topic of inches, it bears mentioning to those inclined to the metric system that a decimal foot is a far more useful system for QTO’s i.e.twelve feet, six inches would be notated as 12.5′.  No accuracy is lost and the spreadsheets are immensely simplified.

Measurements alone are not useful without showing how they relate to cost.  I’ll provide some simple template ideas in a future post.  Speaking of units, the unit of measurement for materials aren’t always obvious.  For example carpet is measured by the square yard whereas floor tile is measured by the square foot.  The “RS MEANS” series of books will provide valuable insight into both the units of measure, and what ballpark price to use.  There are other similar resources, but I’m most familiar with RS Means.  Beware of trusting one source implicitly.  There are many factors that must be adjusted to reflect the exact situation you’re facing.  Anything that strives to be all things to all people fails on both fronts.  Get used to the idea that you’ll have to use multiple references to check accuracy.

 

.Principles of Estimating

 

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© Anton Takken 2014 all rights reserved

 

 


Welcome!

I created this blog to share what I’ve learned as a construction estimator. Most of what I’ll be writing is directed towards bidding on construction projects. However I hope to provide insights into how the construction market works which should prove helpful to anyone in the building industry.

We’ve all had a project that didn’t go according to plan and in many cases something unexpected is to blame. I’ll cover ways to seek out the unexpected, get comfortable with uncertainty and control risk.

My intention is to get beyond “bean counting” and focus on the leadership, judgment, and ethics of a successful estimator.  I’ll cover ways to lower prices and reduce risk without cutting quality or short-changing anyone.  Estimators who know what to look for will find profitable opportunities in hard times.

There’s much to cover in future posts, I hope you’ll return to read more.